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The COVID-19 pandemic in New York City (NYC) was characterized by marked disparities in disease burdens across neighborhoods. Accurate neighborhood-level forecasts are critical for planning more equitable resource allocation to reduce health inequalities; however, such spatially high-resolution forecasts remain scarce in operational use. In this study, we analyze aggregated foot traffic data derived from mobile devices to measure the connectivity among 42 NYC neighborhoods driven by various human activities such as dining, shopping, and entertainment. Using real-world time-varying contact patterns in different place categories, we develop a parsimonious behavior-driven epidemic model that incorporates population mixing, indoor crowdedness, dwell time, and seasonality of virus transmissibility. We fit this model to neighborhood-level COVID-19 case data in NYC and further couple this model with a data assimilation algorithm to generate short-term forecasts of neighborhood-level COVID-19 cases in 2020. We find differential contact patterns and connectivity between neighborhoods driven by different human activities. The behavior-driven model supports accurate modeling of neighborhood-level SARS-CoV-2 transmission throughout 2020. In the best-fitting model, we estimate that the force of infection (FOI) in indoor settings increases sublinearly with crowdedness and dwell time. Retrospective forecasting demonstrates that this behavior-driven model generates improved short-term forecasts in NYC neighborhoods compared to several baseline models. Our findings indicate that aggregated foot-traffic data for routine human activities can support neighborhood-level COVID-19 forecasts in NYC. This behavior-driven model may be adapted for use with other respiratory pathogens sharing similar transmission routes. 

Searching for land refugia becomes imperative for human survival during the hypothetical sixth mass extinction. Studying past comparable crises can offer insights, but there is no fossil evidence of diverse megafloral ecosystems surviving the largest Phanerozoic biodiversity crisis. Here, we investigated palynomorphs, plant, and tetrapod fossils from the Permian-Triassic South Taodonggou Section in Xinjiang, China. Our fossil records, calibrated by a high-resolution age model, reveal the presence of vibrant regional gymnospermous forests and fern fields, while marine organisms experienced mass extinction. This refugial vegetation was crucial for nourishing the substantial influx of surviving animals, thereby establishing a diverse terrestrial ecosystem approximately 75,000 years after the mass extinction. Our findings contradict the widely held belief that restoring terrestrial ecosystem functional diversity to pre-extinction levels would take millions of years. Our research indicates that moderate hydrological fluctuations throughout the crisis sustained this refugium, likely making it one of the sources for the rapid radiation of terrestrial life in the early Mesozoic. 

A close correlation between lithofacies and organofacies in meter-scale high-order cycles composed of lacustrine sediments enables comparison and refinement of lithofacies-defined cyclostratigraphy. Four lithofacies and four organofacies have been identified in fluctuating profundal high-order cycles in the lower-Permian Lucaogou Formation, southern Bogda Mountains, NW China. The four lithofacies include interbedded and interlaminated coarse siltstone and very fine sandstone, black shale, wackestone and dolostone, and calcareous and dolomitic shales. Four distinctive organofacies have been identified, on the basis of geochemical composition of organic matter and specific biomarker proxies related to organic matter types, rather than to depositional conditions and thermal maturity. The four organofacies are associated with the four lithofacies in the meter-scale high-order cycles, suggesting litho- and organo-facies may be genetically linked and may have been controlled by lake contraction and extension. The study shows that the lithofacies-derived and environment-defined high-order cycles can be delineated and substantiated by geochemical proxies-defined organofacies. This study also demonstrates that a holistic approach combining litho- and organic geochemical data is useful in reconstruction of meter-scale lacustrine cycles in a half-graben. 

The Permian-Triassic time is a significant stage in the Paleozoic continental amalgamation and Cenozoic orogenic reactivation of southern Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB). Field, petrographic, and detrital zircon U-Pb geochronological data of the uppermost Carboniferous–Lower Triassic sandstones from 3 sections in Bogda Mountains, greater Turpan-Junggar basin, NW China, are used to decipher the tectonic history. The sections are Tarlong-Taodonggou (TT) and Zhaobishan (ZBS) in the south and Dalongkou (DLK) in the north, 100 km apart and ~7,000 m in total thickness. Four petrofacies of 229 sandstones and U-Pb dates of 3505 zircons of 35 sandstones form the basis for interpretation. During Gzhelian–Asselian, andesite and basalt are the major source lithologies in TT. Zircon ages peak at ~300 Ma. During Sakmarian–Kungurian, basalt and andesite are the main source rocks in TT and ZBS; and zircon ages of both areas peak at ~300 Ma. The Roadian–Wordian is represented by a regional unconformity. The Guadalupian source lithology and zircon date show a major change. Andesite is the common and rhyolite and basalt the minor source lithologies for TT and DLK; but rhyolite for ZBS. A unimodal peak at ~305 Ma occurs in TT; but two peaks at 305 and 455 Ma with common Precambrian dates in ZBS; and peaks of 310–295 Ma in DLK. During Wuchiapingian–mid Olenekian, andesite and rhyolite are the common source lithologies for TT and DLK; but rhyolite as the primary volcanic lithology for ZBS. In TT, Wuchiapingian- Induan samples have a major age peak at ~300 Ma, and an Olenekian sample has two peaks at ~300 and ~450 Ma. In ZBS, the age pattern is similar to that of the Guadalupian sample. In DLK, samples have a major peak at ~310 Ma and a minor peak at ~450 Ma. The comparable age clusters identified by multi-dimensional scaling indicate that North Tianshan is the source for TT and ZBS during the latest Carboniferous–early Permian. But in mid Permian, south Central Tianshan became the main source solely to ZBS. During late Permian–Early Triassic, both north and central Tianshan became the common sources to all three areas due to enhanced denudation. The source change in mid-Permian across a regional unconformity is synchronous with Paleo-Asian Ocean closure and arc-continent and continent-continent collisions, which occurred along the southern margin of Turpan- Junggar basin no later than Guadalupian. 

The Capitanian–lower Wuchiapingian lower and upper Quanzijie low-order cycles (QZJ LCs) in Bogda Mountains, NW China, containevidence of mountain glaciation and loess deposition in eastern Kazakhstan Plate. They occur in Zhaobishan (ZBS), Tarlong-Taodonggou (TL-TDG), and Dalongkou (DLK) areas, ~100 km apart. The lower QZJ LC overlies a regional unconformity, consists of conglomerate at ZBS at foothills of ancestral north Tianshan and Calcisol, mudrock, sandstone, and conglomerate at TL-TDG andDLK in the basin, and is 1-10s m thick. The basinal deposits are upward-fining meandering stream deposits. In ZBS, fining-upward successions from imbricated boulder–pebble conglomerates to minor sandstones with erosional bases are braided stream deposits.Of 135 randomly-counted cobbles and boulders, 80% are faceted penta-, hexa-, and hepta-hedrons with rounded edges; 75% have atleast one flat face; 60% one concave face (60%); 93% smooth, shiny, and smeared faces; 56% 1–3 sets of parallel to non-parallel striations; and 57% one or more grinding pits, indicating a glacial origin. In contrast, the upper QZJ LC is 60-160 m thick in the basinand 205 m in ZBS. Basinal deposits consist of massive mudstone with a consistent silt-size distribution, interspersed with lenticular upward fining conglomerate to sandstone, interpreted as loess and ephemeral braided stream deposits, respectively. In ZBS, the upper QZJ LC contains mainly upward fining conglomerate–sandstone successions of coarse-grained meandering stream deposits.Few ostracod-bearing shales and well rounded and cross-stratified sandstones are lacustrine and eolian deposits, respectively.Gravels are mainly pebble–granule. 22 counted cobbles are similar to those in lower QZJ and 77% have 1–3 sets of striations, suggesting a dominantly proglacial fluvial setting. Petrified woods with distinct frost rings are common in the QZJ, indicating a freezing upland condition. The basal unconformity signifies tectonic uplift and erosion during closure of Paleo-Asian Ocean. Growth of north Tianshan in an icehouse climate promoted formation of alpine glaciers, which supplied copious fluvial sediments of the lower QZJ.Glacial retreat exposed previous sediments to source the loess accumulated in the basin, but proglacial fluvial deposition persisted inZBS until early Wuchiapingian. 

Exceptionally well-preserved impression fossils of Cyrillopteris (ex. Odontopteris) orbicularis (Halle) comb. et emend. nov. have been described from the lower part of the middle–upper Permian Upper Shihezi (Upper Shihhotse) Formation in Yangquan City, Shanxi Province, North China. For the first time, this typical Cathaysian seed fern is confirmed to have a bipartite frond with two bipinnate branches, comparable with that of C. genuina (Grand’Eury) Laveine et Oudoire from the Pennsylvanian of France. Entire-margined cyclopteriod elements occur in the proximal portion of the long petiole. With increasing proximity of the bifurcation, the cyclopteroid elements progressively differentiate into pinnae with individual pinnules. True intercalary pinnules, which would be fully inserted on the primary rachides, are not present. Characteristics of our new specimens provide new information on the frond architecture of C. orbicularis (Halle) comb. et emend. nov., and allow a relatively complete circumscription of the overall features of this taxon, an emendation of the species diagnosis, and the presentation of an accurate frond reconstruction. Specimens of C. orbicularis comb. et emend. nov. are preserved with mesophytes and xerophytes from the same interval, demonstrating the vegetation in the research area grew under a seasonal subhumid to semiarid climates during the late Guadalupian. 

ABSTRACT The Bogda Mountains, Xianjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, western China, expose an uppermost Permian–Lower Triassic succession of fully continental strata deposited across three graben (half graben) structures in the mid-paleolatitudes of Pangea. A cyclostratigraphy scheme developed for the succession is subdivided into three low-order cycles (Wutonggou, Jiucaiyuan, Shaofanggou). Low-order cycles are partitioned into 1838 high-order cycles based on repetitive environmental changes, and their plant taphonomic character is assessed in > 4700 m of high-resolution, measured sections distributed across ∼ 100 km. Four taphonomic assemblages are represented by: permineralized wood (both autochthonous and allochthonous), megafloral adpressions (?parautochthonous and allochthonous) identifiable to systematic affinity, unidentifiable (allochthonous) phytoclasts concentrated or disseminated on bedding, and (autochthonous) rooting structures of various configurations (carbon films to rhizoconcretions). Their temporal and spatial occurrences vary across the study area and are dependent on the array of depositional environments exposed in any particular locality. Similar to paleobotanical results in other fully continental basins, megafloral elements are rarely encountered. Both wood (erect permineralized stumps and prostrate logs) and adpressions are found in < 2% of meandering river and limnic cycles, where sediment accumulated under semi-arid to humid conditions. The absence of such assemblages in river-and-lake deposits is more likely related to physical or geographical factors than it is to an absence of organic-matter contribution. With such a low frequency, no predictable pattern or trend to their occurrence can be determined. This is also true for any horizon in which rooting structures are preserved, although paleosols occur in all or parts of high-order cycles developed under arid to humid conditions. Physical rooting structures are encountered in only 23% of these and are not preserved equally across space and time. Allochthonous phytoclasts are the most common taphonomic assemblage, preserved in association with micaceous minerals on bedding in fine-grained lithofacies. The consistency of phytoclast assemblages throughout the succession is empirical evidence for the presence of riparian vegetation during a time when models propose the catastrophic demise of land plants, and does not support an interpretation of vegetational demise followed by long-term recovery across the crisis interval in this basin. These mesofossil and microfossil (palynological) assemblages offer the best opportunity to understand the effects of the crisis on the base of terrestrial ecosystems. 

The Junggar and Turpan basins of Xinjiang, northwest China, host a well-preserved terrestrial Permo-Triassic boundary sequence exposed on the flanks of the Bogda Mountains. During the Permo-Triassic, this region was located in mid-latitude northeast Pangaea (~45°N), making it an important comparison to the higher latitude record preserved in the South African Karoo Basin (~60°S). Broad similarities exist between the tetrapod records of both areas, such as the reported co-occurrence of Dicynodon-grade dicynodontoids and Lystrosaurus in the upper Permian and the high abundance of Lystrosaurus in the Lower Triassic. In the Bogda sections, the Permo-Triassic boundary falls within the upper Guodikeng Formation (= upper Wutonggou low order cycle), but several horizons have been proposed based on biostratigraphy, chemostratigraphy, and paleomagnetic data. A new Bayesian age model calibrated by multiple radiometric dates and tied to detailed litho- and cyclostratigraphic data offers new insight into the location of the Permo-Triassic boundary in Xinjiang and the opportunity to reconsider tetrapod occurrences in a highly resolved chronostratigraphic framework. We investigated the positions of new and historic tetrapod specimens relative to the revised Permo-Triassic boundary, including uncertainties about the locations of key historic specimens. The stratigraphic range of Dicynodon-grade dicynodontoids in Xinjiang is poorly constrained: most specimens, including the holotype of Jimusaria sinkianensis, cannot be precisely placed relative to the Permo-Triassic boundary. A new specimen of Turfanodon sp. for which we have reliable data occurs in the upper Permian. Despite their previous treatment as Permian in age, most Bogda chroniosuchians were collected in strata above the Permo- Triassic boundary and the therocephalian Dalongkoua fuae also may be Triassic. Some prior placements of the Permo- Triassic boundary in Xinjiang imply an upper Permian lowestoccurrence for Lystrosaurus, but all Lystrosaurus specimens that we can precisely locate fall above the Permo-Triassic boundary. The high abundance of Lystrosaurus in the Early Triassic of Xinjiang likely parallels an Early Triassic age for the interval of greatest Lystrosaurus abundance in the Karoo Basin, but additional research is needed to determine whether there was a single, globally synchronous time of highest Lystrosaurus abundance.